Research

Journal publication

The Role of Credit Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 52, April 2020, 101140.

With Gabriel Rodriguez

This paper analyzes the impact of loan supply shocks on real economic activity in Pacific Alliance countries using a TVP-VAR-SV model with sign restrictions. The results show that loan supply shocks have significant effects on economic activity, with their importance varying over time and across countries. The findings are robust to alternative specifications and sign restrictions.

Working papers

Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Debt Overhang Thresholds

IMF Working Papers 2026, 051 (2026).

With R. Bhattacharya, A. Goumilevski, M. Lesniak, and F. Lutz

This paper estimates country-specific public debt overhang thresholds for 105 countries using a Kalman filter approach within a standard growth model. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries and country groups, while estimated thresholds vary relatively little over time. Stronger repayment records, better institutions and governance, the composition of public debt, and deeper financial markets are associated with higher debt overhang thresholds.

A Quantitative Analysis of the Determinants of Fiscal Multipliers and Its Policy Implications

Solo-authored working paper.

This paper examines how the impact of public spending on economic activity changes over time. The results point to a decline in the effectiveness of public spending over the last decade and highlight the role of public debt in shaping fiscal multipliers. The analysis allows for time-varying parameters and evaluates the robustness of the results across alternative specifications.