Research

Journal publications

The Role of Credit Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 52, April 2020, 101140.

With Gabriel Rodriguez

This paper analyzes the impact of loan supply shocks on the real economic activity of Pacific Alliance countries using a TVP-VAR-SV model with sign restrictions. The results show that loan supply shocks have a significant effect on economic activity, similar to aggregate supply and demand shocks. The influence of loan supply shocks varies over time and differs among Pacific Alliance countries. The findings are robust to different specifications and sign restrictions.

Working papers

A Quantitative Analysis of the Determinants of Fiscal Multiplers and Its Policy Implications

This research examines the impact of public spending on economic activity over time. The findings reveal a decreasing effectiveness of public spending over the last decade and emphasize the importance of controlling public debt levels to enhance its impact. The study confirms changing parameters in the model and demonstrates the robustness of the results through sensitivity analyses.

Monetary Policy Interest Rate and Financial Stability: Empirical Evidence for CARD countries

This study investigates the connection between monetary policy rate and financial stability in CARD countries. The findings indicate a moderate correlation between the block countries, but financial cycles do not syncronize with business cycles. The analysis suggests that monetary shocks have an impact on financial stability, providing the monetary authorities in the block with the ability to adjust interest rates when necessary to affect financial conditions.

In progress

Market and Sovereign Responses to Credit Rating Agencies Announcements in Emerging Markets

with Kenji Moreno (IMF) and Luigui Butron (WB)