Welcome to my site!

"Macroeconomic stability is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for sustained economic growth and poverty reduction. Without stability, uncertainty discourages investment, both domestic and foreign, and undermines long-term development prospects."
— Michael P. Todaro & Stephen C. Smith, Economic Development, 12th ed. (2015), p. 698.

Just a young economist inspired by the hard-work of Cristiano Ronaldo, the genius of Paul Samuelson and the creativity of Quentin Tarantino. Very proud to represent the first generation in my family to graduate from university and having attained significant milestones throughout my professional career.

Currently, I serve as Research Analyst for the United States Desk at the International Monetary Fund, contributing to the research and policy agendas of Mai Dao, Philip Barrett, JaeBin Ahn, and Jing Zhou. My work includes machine learning analysis of migration-labor administrative data, GDP nowcasting, recession turning point prediction, and contributions to the U.S. WEO forecast workflow.

Previously, I was Research Assistant to Andrew Powell, Technical Advisor at the IDB, focusing on macro-financial issues at both aggregate and micro levels. My work included probability of default modeling, banking microdata analysis, and macro risk scenario formulation with G-VAR models, contributing to the Macro Report series (2021, 2022, 2023). Prior to that, I was a Data Analyst at the Central Bank of Peru.

Beyond my working hours, I enjoy contributing to the open source community by developing statistical packages. Our main project, csdid that implements the staggered DiD estimator proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) in Python, achieved significant impact, reaching over 70,000 downloads. Other times, when I am not programming or stuyding, I enjoy photography, salsa dancing and international food.

I obtained both my BS and Licenciatura in Economics from the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP), widely regarded as Peru’s premier university. I then ranked among the top three students nationally in the Advanced Economics Summer Course at the Central Bank of Peru, an experience that marked the beginning of my career as a macroeconomist.

Interest: Macroeconomics, International Economics, Finance, Banking, Econometric Softwares and Machine Learning

Contact: carlos.guek@gmail.com or cguevara@imf.org